Dealers to avoid (part 1)

Posted on June 24, 2017 by admin

This is part 1 of a series of many. As many as the types of coin dealers to avoid.

These posts will not cover fly-by nighters and thieves offering $100 on Bust Dollars and things like that. Assuming you are a knowledgeable collector, the dealers I discuss here are not scammers. In fact, I would continue to do business with some of them with certain coins. But definitely not all coins.

Here are some dealers to avoid when you are selling coins to them.

 

Case 1: Advertisement of a dealer buying BU coins

The con: The dealer will do a quick glance of your BU coins. He will tell you they are all sliders or AU and will not offer you the BU price (often already below wholesale). Why? This dealer wants you to show him your BU coins hoping for Choice and Gem BUs. He is really offering BU prices for Choice and Gems. How else are they going to make money? By paying you fairly? LOL Don’t sell any BU coins to him.

 

Case 2: The price guide dealer

The con: Some dealers live and die by the greysheet or some other guide. What they don’t tell you is that the dealer does not have much knowledge about the coin you are selling to him and may disregard important things like date, mint, type, variety, eye appeal or actual market pricing. The fact is, you probably know and appreciate your coin much more than he does.
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Example: You are selling him a nice CAC stickered  coin and dealer pulls out a bluesheet for sight unseen coins.

Example: You are selling him a Type 2 Double Eagle and dealer pulls out RARCOA gold sheet pricing.

When people like these open up their sheets, sometimes you should just close your coin album and walk away.

 

Case 3: Dealer offering spot or below for Gold or Silver Eagles

Solution: Everybody knows Gold and Silver Eagles are acquired with a premium over melt. Move on, you can do better.

 

More to come…

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The danger of raw coins

Posted on January 17, 2017 by admin

Before certified coin grading, coins were collected raw. It’s been that way since day one. Today, it is still a popular way to collect. However, much of the fun has been taken out of it.

In a sense, the top grading companies have spoiled the appeal of raw coins. Think you are an experienced coin grader? Most people will more than likely get burned in today’s market. We don’t have the resources of these grading companies. One may avoid the more obvious problems of cleaning, scratches, or damage. But no one can catch all of the more subtle forms of these problems. Would you be able to catch every form of repair, doctoring, tooling, planchet flaw, wheel mark, artificial color, counterfeit or crack-out? A raw coin could have an infinite number of problems. Most people lose.

That’s one reason why PCGS or NGC coins should be worth more. They catch problems, and not just the easy ones. But they make lots of mistakes too. Sometimes the ugly coins make the grade and the beautiful coins fail. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what makes the grade or not. The point is, how much can you get for it?

Coin collecting has never been the same since certified grading got started. The good old, innocent days of raw coin collecting has been gone for over 30 years. It’s not as fun as it used to be. That might be one reason we have less new collectors. How do we bring back the fun for the average collector? I don’t have the answer, but it’s something to think about. Raw coins are still fun but just so risky.
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Now, it has come to my attention that people are paying big bucks for some of the PCGS/NGC flunkies. And it’s not that these people can’t grade. It might be because these coins are placed in 2nd or 3rd tier grading holders as higher grade or original. Could you blame these companies? They grade coins, but they might not have the experience and equipment for more precise grading. Their coins often look very nice. In the old days, the buyers of these coins  might do all right. Sadly, they are 30 years out of touch. I am sorry to say impending disaster awaits some in our hobby ahead. At the least, great disappoint and dismay.

Raw coins should be collected for fun. If you really know what you are doing and can get what you want low enough, go ahead. You still might do well. But there is already enough danger investing in PCGS or NGC coins. Have you caught on?

 

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The $28K question

Posted on October 28, 2016 by admin

On the October 21 issue of the greysheet, I noticed that an MS-67 1900-S Morgan dollar sold twice recently this year. Both were stickered by CAC. The difference was that one sold for $39,950 and the other $11,750. Greysheet bids recently came down from $17,000 to $12,ooo.

It’s just interesting to see how 2 coins of the same grade could get such vastly different valuations. I couldn’t help but to see the 2 coins for myself and looked up the auction records from Heritage.

The shocking result was that the 2 coins are exactly the same.

One difference was that the higher priced coin was slabbed by PCGS and the lower priced coin was slabbed by NGC. How important can a holder be?

It should be pointed out that NGC did an excellent job grading the coin accurately.

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The greysheet referred to it as “the nuance of understanding high-grade, low-population coins.”

Another way of saying it would be “getting screwed 28K ways.”

 

 

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How the crack-out game is rigged

Posted on April 28, 2016 by admin

Every day, 3rd party grading companies upgrade inferior coins which would have graded lower in earlier days. With repeated submission after submission of the same coin over and over again, a grader is prone to make an oversight and upgrade a coin which shouldn’t have made the grade. This is called grade inflation, and it affects every coin collector. The value of your nice coins go down, and it is due to the higher population of these new overgraded, inflated coins crowding your airspace destroying what is left of rarity.

Consider the 1862-S quarter originally graded PCGS MS-63. On 5/2000, the coin sold for $6,095. Somebody cracked this coin out, cleaned it, and got it regraded at PCGS MS-64 CAC, the highest grade for this coin. On 6/2014, some guy paid over $44K for it. Although this coin originally had some light toning, it has lost its original luster. The coin, at least in the picture below, looks artificial and lifeless. Has a nice coin been ‘conserved’ to a higher grade, or has it been ruined forever?

Look for originality. Once it is gone, it is gone. CAC didn’t tell that buyer what happened. But it sure made lots of good money for the guy who sold it.

On a more blatant example, there is a coin of the same type which was in a NCS holder grading AU details on 12/13. By 10/13/14, it had been cracked out and auctioned off in a PCGS AU-58 holder. Did someone ‘dirty’ that coin up?

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How is the game rigged? Coin doctors. They bring a bad name to coin collecting. If you don’t have a good doctor by your side, your coin collection is really a hobby intended for fun.  Because it would suck as an investment.

Maybe this is the reason fewer people want to get into numismatics?

Update 7/21/2016: Heritage Auctions just announced another PCGS MS-63 example for sale. Originally PCGS MS-62, somebody cracked this coin out, cleaned it, and got it regraded at PCGS MS-63. Really nice job lookin’ shiny now. Let’s hope the spots don’t tone back inside the holder. It seems that no one, not even PCGS is adept at telling apart an original untoned coin from one that’s been ‘conserved.’ Just remember to check your shiny coins for spots once in a while.

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Inflation…it’s there and it isn’t there

Posted on February 15, 2016 by admin

Is inflation here? Yes. Despite what you’ve been told, it has always been here and has never left. The buying power of your cash is going down. Over the past 5 years, I can name dozens of companies that have raised their rates. I can’t name one firm that has lowered their prices during this time.

But yet today, we are faced with deflationary forces. This includes the plunging price of oil, among other commodities. This is even more so for precious metals. It is reflected in the strong value of the US dollar against other currencies, which is a good thing for the US. Are these forces caused by the economic meltdown and the subsequent recession? Is the government losing control containing deflation?

A few things are certain. Our government have held interest rates low. Our stock market has recovered, and in some ways boomed. Real estate prices have stabilized and is on the up. Over the past 5 years, your money is able to buy more oil, precious metals, imports, and travel outside the US. But not food. And not better services. I foresee a bit more foreign competition in our future.

One explanation for the fall of precious metals is that we did not see the massive inflation that was supposed to come with all of the bank bail-outs.

Perhaps the deflationary forces we see are a result of public perception and intuition? How much of it is based on actual truth? It seems Wall Street isn’t contained in the financial sector. It has expanded to everyday life where money is involved.
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Stagflation, the inevitable result of a financial system which is built upon usury, fraud, and gross incompetence.

Inflation. It’s there and it isn’t there.

Where will you put your money on?

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An Inspiring Story

Posted on January 7, 2016 by admin

Did you renew your Greysheet subscription yet? If not, do it on their website now!

I just read an investment success story that inspired me. In 1990, billionaire Barbara Piasecka Johnson (of Johnson & Johnson) bought a really expensive piece of furniture at Christie’s. That piece of furniture was an 18th century Florentine ebony chest. It was bought for $16.59 million and is still the most valuable piece of furniture known. It’s also called the Badminton Cabinet because it remained in Badminton, England for over 200 years. In 2004, Johnson puts it up for sale and it was sold for $36 million, once again at Christie’s. So, in a holding period of 14 years, the value of the item went up over 116%.

So this is a story of a billionaire making a high profile purchase then cashing out. Did she buy the item out of passion or purely for investment? For whatever reason, she had the nerve to let it go.
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What would this mean for you? It could serve as a ‘short term’ reality check. In the past 14 years, which of your investments have gone up 116%? Do you have the nerve to cash out?

Are you able to separate passion from investment?

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Coin Dealers Alert!

Posted on January 4, 2016 by admin

Did you know the CDN Greysheet recently raised their prices? It’s now $249 per year, a 96% increase! That’s more than a 2-year subscription of $209 in 2015!!

You still might have a chance to get it at the old price. Try purchasing on their website. Do it now!!!
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I have almost no respect for…

Posted on December 21, 2015 by admin

When I was in college, I used to quote myself as saying “I have almost no respect for Mao Zedong.” Why? He was responsible for the spread of Communism in China. He was responsible for the deaths (murders) of millions. He is a pretty bad guy, but even today, millions worship him.

Which brings us to the same idol of worship here in 2015 America. Now, I say “I have almost no respect for Wall Street.” Among the reasons:

– Wall Street lost more than 49% of the typical investor’s money  TWICE  just since the year 2000. It could easily happen again in the next five to ten years… or even tomorrow
– The only guarantee Wall Street gives you is that they get paid whether you win or lose (i.e. Commissions)
– Malipulation of various markets, including but not limited to precious metals.
– Corporate corruption / lawsuits / penalties
– Government intervention / bailouts
– Insider trading
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The list goes on. In fact, I’m having more trouble finding the bad things of Mao Zedong than Wall Street.

I’ll take this a step further. Wall Street is probably more of a threat to the average American than ISIS.

If you worship Wall Street, you should stop.

 

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PCGS trends

Posted on February 28, 2015 by admin

Am I the first one to notice PCGS has tightened their grading standard? Does it have something to do with the current weakness of the coin market? What else could it be?

Have you been getting your coins back properly graded? Or did you expect more? How does it feel to get your MS-66 coin back as a MS-64? Or your MS-65 as MS-63?

With the discovery of the new 1919 DDO Mercury dime, PCGS forum members rejected it like a bunch of dismissive old men. Maybe they don’t want to believe it?

What if they were PCGS graders? Would you like them to take the same attitude when grading your coins?

Way to go PCGS.

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Update 3/27: About my comment that PCGS has tightened their grading standard, maybe it’s just me. Below we have an example of an recent overgraded coin (compared with other PCGS coins). Why do these guys only undergrade my coins? Way to go PCGS.

 

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What’s the real value of silver?

Posted on January 24, 2015 by admin

In the early 1980s, the Hunt Brothers manipulated the price of silver against market forces. And it soared.

In 2011, the big commercial shorters manipulated the price of silver against market forces. And it tanked.

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Is that BU Franklin Half you have on your table really only worth $9? Didn’t Lincoln say something about a dog and a tail? hmmm

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